US Banks and Greek Debt Will be the Toxic Trigger

June 17, 2011

The Next Global Credit Crisis: Why U.S. Banks and Greek Debt Will be the Toxic Trigger

By Shah Gilani, Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Will a hidden link between the Greek debt situation and the U.S. banking system ignite the next global credit crisis?

The odds of the "next" global credit crisis are increasing with each new day, and with each new revelation. And escalating fears are hitting worldwide stock markets hard.

Just yesterday (Thursday), Greece's leaders revealed that the country's socialist government is on the brink of collapse. Greek protesters - angered by brutal austerity measures that will almost certainly heighten the country's record 16.2% unemployment rate - are rioting in the streets of Athens.

On Wednesday, Moody's Investors Service (NYSE: MCO) warned France's three largest banks that their exposure to Greek debt could lead to credit-rating downgrades. There are even concerns that the European Central Bank (ECB) may be technically insolvent - meaning it wouldn't survive a global financial meltdown.

Investors are right to be worried.

But with the European banking system's financial woes currently dominating the headlines, those investors might be very surprised to discover that it's actually the U.S. financial system that may end up as the real weak link in the event of a Greek debt default.

And investors don't even know this link exists.

The Scary Facts About Greece's Finances

Since last May, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Eurozone members ponied up $159 billion (110 billion euros) for a Greek bailout, Greece has had to implement radical austerity measures. Terms of the bailout forced Greece to boost taxes and slash government spending. There was a public outcry, but the country's citizenry largely went along; it had no choice.

One in three Greek workers is employed by the government. As austerity-mandated layoffs have progressed, Greece's unemployment rate has zoomed from 11.7% in the first quarter of last year to the record 16.2% rate recently reported.

And given that government spending is still at 46.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), additional budget cuts will be coming - meaning Greece's national jobless rate is certain to increase.

So is the national anger level.