Grecia/euro: scompare articolo del Telegraph

Nicoletta Forcheri, COSENOSTREACASANOSTRA, 30 gennaio 2010

Grecia/euro: scompare articolo del Telegraph

L'articolo sotto, pubblicato sul Telegraph del 17 gennaio scorso, è stato cancellato dal suo sito ed è stato reso difficilmente reperibile sul net. A riprova della sua importanza, tanto più che vi si parla delle possibilità legali, contemplate in uno studio della BCE, di minacciare di espellere un paese dall'UE in caso di fuoriuscita dall'UEM. Colpisce soprattutto il tono del linguaggio nei confronti della casta eurotecnica. Nel commentare l'articolo e lo studio BCE, infatti, Movisol scrive:

Il pericolo di uno sgretolamento dell'Euro ha spinto la Banca Centrale Europea a commissionare uno studio sulle conseguenze legali della decisione di un membro singolo dell'UE di uscire dall'Euro. Questo studio, visionato dal Telegraph, è un esempio magistrale di come funzioni il sistema giuridico neofeudale dell'UE. Esso sostiene che se uno stato abbandona l'Euro sarà automaticamente espulso dall'UE.

"L'autore", scrive il Telegraph del 18 gennaio, "fa una serie di affermazioni contorte, gesuitiche e maligne, come fanno spesso i legali dell'UE". Mezzo secolo di unione sempre più stretta avrebbe creato un "nuovo ordine giuridico" che trascende un "concetto di sovranità largamente obsoleto" e impone una "limitazione permanente" sui diritti degli stati. L'autore sostiene che l'uscita dall'eurozona comporta l'espulsione dall'Unione Europea. Tutti i membri dell'UE devono far parte dell'Unione Monetaria, tranne la Gran Bretagna e la Danimarca che hanno ottenuto i cosiddetti "opt-out".

Sono argomenti ovviamente mirati all'opinione pubblica greca, per convincerla ad accettare sacrifici incredibili per restare nell'UE, dove la Grecia è ricevitore netto. Però la loro efficacia è dubbia, specialmente alla luce del fatto che i sacrifici richiesti peggioreranno le cose.

Quello che non si dice è che è vero che la Grecia è un ricevitore netto dall'UE ma solo se non si calcola il l'emorragia del debito pubblico provocato dal sistema bancario della moneta-debito privata, di cui la Banca centrale europea è il massimo responsabile.

Nicoletta Forcheri

ECB Prepares Legal Ground for Euro Rupture as Greek Crisis Escalates

ECB Prepares Legal Ground for Euro Rupture as Greek Crisis Escalates by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Fears of a euro break-up have reached the point where the European
Central Bank feels compelled to issue a legal analysis of what would
happen if a country tried to leave monetary union.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Telegraph, 17 Jan 2010

"Recent developments have, perhaps, increased the risk of secession
(however modestly), as well as the urgency of addressing it as a
possible scenario," said the document, entitled "Withdrawal and
expulsion from the EU and EMU: some reflections."

The author makes a string of vaulting, Jesuitical, and mischievous
claims, as EU lawyers often do. Half a century of ever-closer union
has created a new legal order that transcends a largely obsolete
concept of sovereignty and imposes a permanent limitation on the
states rights.

Those who suspect that European Court has the power pretensions of
the Medieval Papacy will find plenty to validate their fears in
this astonishing text.

Crucially, he argues that eurozone exit entails expulsion from the
European Union as well. All EU members must take part in EMU (except
Britain and Denmark, with opt-outs).

This is a warning shot for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. If
they fail to marshal public support for draconian austerity, they
risk being cast into Icelandic oblivion. Or for Greece, back into
the clammy embrace of Asia Minor.

ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet upped the ante, warning that the bank
would not bend its collateral rules to support Greek debt. No state
can expect any special treatment, he said. He might as well daub a
deaths cross on the door of Greece's debt management office.

This euro-brinkmanship must be unnerving for the Hellenic Socialists
(PASOK).

Last weeks 1.6bn (#1.4bn) auction of Greek debt did not go well.
The interest rate on six-month notes rose to 1.38pc, compared to
0.59pc a month ago. The yield on 10-year bonds has touched 6pc, the
spreads ballooning to 270 basis points above German Bunds.

Greece cannot afford such a premium for long. The country must raise
54bn this year front-loaded in the first half. Unless the spreads
fall sharply, the deficit cannot be cut from 12.7pc of GDP to 3pc
of GDP within three years.

As Moody's put it, Greece (and Portugal) faces the risk of slow death
from rising interest costs.

Stephen Jen from BlueGold Capital said the design flaws of monetary
union are becoming clearer. I don't believe Euroland will break up:
too much political capital has been spent in the past half century
for Euroland to allow an outright breakage. However, severe
'stress-fractures are quite likely in the years ahead.

As Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS) slide into
deflation, their real interest rates will rise even higher. It is
tantamount to hiking rates in the already weak PIIGS, he said. This
is the crux. ECB policy will become pro-cyclical, too tight for the
South, too loose for the North.

The City view is that the North-South split may cause trouble, but
that there will always be a bail-out to prevent a domino effect.
If a rescue turns out to be necessary, a rescue will be mounted,
said Marco Annunziata from Unicredit.

It comes down to a bet that Berlin will do for Club Med what it did
for East Germany: subsidise forever. It is a judgement on whether
EMU is the binding coin of sacred solidarity, or just a fixed
exchange rate system like others before it.

Politics will decide, and in Greece it is already proving messy as
teams of inspectors ruffle feathers. The Orthodox LAOS party is not
happy that an EU crew dared to demand an accounting from the colonels.
The Ministry of Defence is sacrosanct, it said.

Greece alone in Western Europe treats the military budget as a state
secret.

Rating agencies guess it is a ruinous 5pc of GDP. Does the country
really need 1,700 battle tanks, 420 combat jets, and eight submarines?
To fight NATO ally Turkey? Merely to pose the question is to enter
dangerous waters.

Who knows what the IMF surveillance team made of their mission in
Athens. The Funds formula for boom-bust countries that squander
their competitiveness is to retrench AND devalue. But devaluation
is ruled out. Greece must take the pain, without the cure.

The policy is conceptually foolish and arguably cynical. It is to
bleed a society in order to uphold the ideology of the European
Project. Greece's national debt will be 120pc of GDP this year. S&P
says it will reach 138pc by 2012. A fiscal squeeze without any
offsetting monetary or exchange stimulus will cause tax revenues
to collapse. Debt will rise higher on a shrinking economic base.

Even if Greece can cut wages without setting off mass protest, it
lacks the open economy and export sector that may yet save Ireland
in similar circumstances. Greece is caught in a textbook deflation
trap.

Labour minister Andreas Loverdos says unemployment would reach a
million this year or 22pc, equal to 30m in the US. He broadcast
the fact with a hint of menace, as if he wanted Europe to squirm.
Two can play brinkmanship.