NIA: Total Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Gold

National Inflation Association: Total Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Gold

The top four central banks with the largest balance sheets today are: 1) Federal Reserve: $4.368 trillion, 2) European Central Bank: $2.997 trillion, 3) Bank of Japan: $2.585 trillion, 4) Bank of England: $676.3 billion. The top four central banks currently have total balance sheets of $10.626 trillion.

 

Eight years ago at the end of May 2006, the top four central banks with the largest balance sheets were: 1) European Central Bank: $1.391 trillion, 2) Bank of Japan: $1.378 trillion, 3) Federal Reserve: $851.6 billion, 4) Bank of England: $163.3 billion. The top four central banks at the end of May 2006 had total balance sheets of $3.785 trillion.

 

Today, the Federal Reserve alone has a larger balance sheet than the top four central banks combined eight years ago! Over the last eight years, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has increased by 413%, the Bank of England's balance sheet has increased by 314%, the European Central Bank's balance sheet has increased by 115%, and the Bank of Japan's balance sheet has increased by 88%. All together, the total balance sheets of the top four central banks have grown by a stunning 181% in eight years!

 

Gold at the end of May 2006 was trading for $653 per oz and is currently $1,319 per oz. Gold over the last eight years has only increased by 102%! Gold is currently extremely oversold vs. the total balance sheets of the top four central banks, and is about to bounce big!

 

On September 6, 2011, gold reached an all time nominal high of $1,923 per oz. At that time, the total balance sheets of the top four central banks were only $7.311 trillion. At gold's record nominal high in September 2011, the ratio between the total balance sheets of the top four central banks and gold was a record low of 3.802. Today, the ratio between the total balance sheets of the top four central banks and gold is 8.056, after finishing May at a record high of 8.461. The average ratio over the last eight years has been 5.804.

 

NIA predicts that over the next 6-12 months, the ratio between the total balance sheets of the top four central banks and gold will return to its eight year average of 5.804. Based on the current total balance sheets of the top four central banks of $10.626 trillion, this will equal a gold price of $1,831 per oz.

 

Over the last eight years, the total balance sheets of the top four central banks have been growing at a compound annual growth rate of 13.77% and a compound bi-annual growth rate of 6.66%. NIA estimates that the total balance sheets of the top four central banks will finish 2014 at $11.334 trillion and reach $12.089 trillion one year from now. Therefore, if NIA's prediction comes true and the ratio with gold returns to its eight year average of 5.804 within the next 6-12 months, we will see gold prices rise within the next 6-12 months to between $1,953 and $2,083 per oz.

 

NIA predicts that over the next 24-36 months, the ratio between the total balance sheets of the top four central banks and gold will return to its record low from September 2011 of 3.802. Based on its eight year compound annual growth rate of 13.77%, the total balance sheets of the top four central banks will likely rise to$13.754 trillion in mid-2016 and $15.648 trillion in mid-2017. If NIA's prediction comes true and the ratio with gold returns to its record low of 3.802 within the next 24-36 months, we will see gold prices rise within the next 24-36 months to between $3,618 and $4,116 per oz.

Gold's high from January 1980 of $850 per oz currently equals$2,550 per oz adjusted for the CPI and $4,291 per oz adjusted for the real rate of price inflation. This is in line with NIA's prediction that gold will reach $1,953-$2,083 per oz within the next 6-12 months and $3,618-$4,116 per oz within the next 24-36 months.

 

To see NIA's brand new exclusive interactive chart of the Total Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Gold go to: http://inflation.us/centralbanks/

 

Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.