venerdì 25 maggio 2018

10th June, 2018: national referendum on Sovereign Money in Switzerland

 

Dear Supporter of the Swiss Sovereign Money Initiative,

The 10th June, the date of the national referendum on Sovereign Money in Switzerland, is coming up fast. The ballot papers have been sent out, and the campaign is being hotly discussed and debated all over Switzerland.

In this newsletter:

In the media

The sovereign money initiative was debated in the Arena TV show  (in Swiss German, German subtitles) on the main Swiss TV sender SRF.  Our speakers were excellent, as was the moderator and most of the SRF mini-cartoons about how the money system works and would work under a sovereign money system. The opposition - politicians and economists - did not appear to have a good technical knowledge (though they mentioned "risky experiment" many times).


Swiss newspapers large and small have been writing about the sovereign money initiative extensively - mostly explaining it fairly well - although those against it focus on it being an experiment and driven from abroad with foreign money (not true: despite trying hard to get some foreign millions, I failed).

Here are some links to articles and blogs in English:
The international conference on sovereign money "Our Money, Our Banks, Our Country" held in February reported on in a previous newsletter is now available in its entirety online.
Arguments of our opponents - and our rebuttals

In summary - our opponents are running a fear campaign: the main argument they are using is that the sovereign money initiative is an unnecessary experiment. This shows they have found no valid technical arguments against it. There is now a "No to sovereign money" website. This "No" campaign has kicked-off with posters going up all over the place - they clearly have much more funding than we do.

Detailed arguments from different organisations:

1) From the government and parliament:
In a Swiss people's initiative which comes to referendum, the Swiss Federal Council and parliaments can give their recommendations. The Council of States voted 42 to zero against the sovereign money initiative, with one abstention. The National Council voted 169 to 9 against, with one abstention. The Federal Council also recommends voting against the initiative. The main arguments together with our answers (in italics) in brief, are:
  • A sovereign money system cannot guarantee financial stability - the aim of the initiative is to make people's money safe (we can't prevent a global financial crisis affecting Switzerland)
  • It hasn't been tried in any other country - it's not new, it's what happened when banks were prevented from printing their own banknotes and the Swiss National Bank was founded
  • It would be a radical change from the well-functioning system we have now - the system we have now is not functioning, debt is mushrooming and all experts agree it is not "if" we have another financial crisis, but "when"
  • It would weaken the Swiss financial sector, to the disadvantage of banks' customers - having a totally secure money will be an advantage for Swiss wealth management and banks' customers
  • It would give too much power to the Swiss National Bank which would put it under political pressure - Do we really want the power of money creation to be in the hands of private profit-motivated businesses? The SNB already copes with political pressure - it must act in the best interests of Switzerland
  • Measures have already been taken to strengthen financial stability - We know big banks are already planning to get round the new Basel rules
There are several mistakes in the official booklet sent to all voters, the main one being that under the sovereign money system all money must enter the economy debt-free. This is incorrect: as well as new money being spent into the economy debt-free, money can be lent into the economy as banks may borrow money from the Swiss National Bank. (This means a 'credit crunch' could only occur if the SNB chose not to lend money to banks at reasonable rates). A legal process against the state for providing incorrect information is underway.

Resources:
  • Official booklet sent to voters (German, French, Italian)
  • Federal Council's report on the sovereign money initiative (summary in English, full report in German, French, Italian)
  • and our reply (German)

2) From the Swiss National Bank

Thomas Jordan, Chair of the SNB, has come out strongly against the sovereign money initiative saying "sovereign money is an unnecessary and dangerous experiment, which would inflict great damage on our country". However, he appears not to have understood the sovereign money initiative as he wrongly claims that it would force the SNB into following a policy of targeting the money supply rather than interest rates. There is nothing to stop the SNB from targeting interest rates under the sovereign money system which it can do by setting the interest rates at which it is willing to lend to banks.

3) From the Swiss Bankers Association
The Swiss Bankers Association commissioned Prof Bacchetta to write a study against the sovereign money initiative. This has the guise of being a scientific report, but is absolutely full of fundamental errors and devious statistical handling (e.g. choosing the optimum time period for interest rates to give the worst possible outcome of the effect of sovereign money on the economy, the result being 0.4% less growth). This has been strongly critiqued in a 85-page report by Christian Gomez, and also in a report by Ralph Musgrave.

4) Political Parties
All political parties are against the initiative except for the Green Party who are neither supportive nor against and give a "free vote". The parties who are against have come together in the "Vollgeld-Nein" (No to sovereign money) group, who are focusing on the fear campaign of "risky, expensive and damaging".
Results of the polls

Despite the well funded "No" campaign supported by the government, parliament, the SNB and all political parties except the Green Party, polls show we are still in the running but the "No" side is in the lead.

Note: if you click on the links below to see the German reports with charts, be aware that there are two totally unrelated votes on 10th June: the sovereign money initiative ("Vollgeld") and "Geldspielgesetzt" (to do with online gambling). In both reports the "Geldspielgesetzt" comes first, and you must scroll down to get the results for "Vollgeld".

1) The most recent poll (mid May) shows 39% of respondents plan to vote for (or probably vote for) the sovereign money initiative, with 54% planning to vote  against (or probably vote against) the initiative.  (These results are collected through an internet link).

There is a breakdown by political party, language-region, gender and age. The people who support the vote are then asked which (supportive) arguments they most agree with, and the people against the vote are asked which (opposition) arguments they most agree with.

 
  • Parties: Green Party - For; Social Democratic Party (left wing) - Undecided; all others - Against
  • Language-region: German - Against; French - Undecided; Italian - Undecided
  • Age: Under 35 - Against; 35-49 - Against (only just); 50-64 - Undecided; Over 65 - Against
60% of those against the initiative agreed with the statement "Our monetary and currency system is working. A radical change to it would be an adventure with incalculable risks" as the main reason to be against.

34% of those for the initiative agreed with the statement "In the event of a banking crisis, our bank deposits are not secure because they are virtual book money" and 31% with "The profits of money creation should benefit the general public" as their main reason to be for.

2) A poll taken mid April found that:
  • 59% of respondents would like the Swiss National Bank to create Swiss francs, and 
  • 62% think that private banks being allowed to create money leads to higher chances of financial bubbles.
Despite this, only 35% plan to vote for (or probably vote for) the sovereign money initiative, with 49% planning to vote against (or probably vote against) the initiative (German speakers).

Their prognosis is that the numbers voting for people's initiatives tend to drop over time, unless there is some significant event that influences people otherwise. (The results were collected by telephone).


There is a breakdown by political party and language-regions:

Parties: FDP (Centre right) - strongly Against; all others - undecided. (Interestingly the SPV (right wing) show a similar voting profile to the left wing Social Democrats despite the SVP leadership being strongly against).

Language - the French and Italian regions are much more supportive than the German-speaking region:
  • German-speaking region: 35% For, 49% Against
  • French-speaking region: 42% For, 27% Against
  • Italian-speaking region: 45% For, 36% Against
     
A big Thank You to all of you who have made generous donations. Our campaign is now focussed on social media and small-scale advertising, for example in buses and trams. If you would like to donate you can do it using PayPal or by transferring money to our Postfinance account: Vollgeld-Initiative, Postfinance 60-354546-4, BIC POFICHBEXXX , IBAN CH61 0900 0000 6035 4546 4
If you know any Swiss people, now is the time to get in touch and tell them why you would like them to support the sovereign money initiative (German: Vollgeld-Initiative, French: l’initiative Monnaie Pleine, Italian: Iniziativa Moneta intera).

By the way:  the results of the referendum will be out on the afternoon of 10th June.

With best wishes, on behalf of the campaign team,

Emma Dawnay

emma.dawnay@vollgeld-initiative.ch

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